Elon Musk to NASA's safety watchdog, Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel: Your number is wrong, that's way too ...

NASA’s safety advisory board Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel has reportedly offered a mixed appraisal of the agency’s deep-space ambitions and low Earth orbit (LEO) logistics, drawing swift public pushback from Spacex CEO

Elon Musk over the mechanics of reaching the Moon. During its latest assessment, the Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel (ASAP) cited projections that SpaceX’s Starship Human Landing System (HLS) might require around 22 precursor launches to support a single crewed lunar landing. The staggering launch tempo is driven by orbital refueling requirements, a stark contrast to the 1960s Apollo program, where a single Saturn V lifted an entire mission payload to the Moon using hypergolic-fueled landers.

ASAP member Charlie Precourt, a former NASA astronaut, said that they had been told that 22 launches would be needed to provide the requisite amount of propellant for the lander to reach lunar orbit. Precourt also noted NASA is requiring only one uncrewed test to demonstrate the HLS can land, followed by an engine restart. Musk rejected the panel’s launch estimate on social media platform X. "That's way too high," Musk stated, countering that the "actual number will be more like 6 to 8."

As reported by The Register, transferring super-chilled cryogenic propellant between vehicles at an unprecedented scale remains an unproven pillar of the Artemis architecture.

To date, SpaceX has executed one Starship flight to orbit. If the panel's higher estimate proves closer to reality, the operational cadence required to stage a Moon mission will present a steep engineering and logistical hurdle.

The scrutiny arrives as NASA balances high political stakes with shifting timelines. While Artemis III has been rescoped into a 2027 low Earth orbit demonstration of competing lunar lander technologies from SpaceX and Blue Origin, pressure persists to land astronauts on the lunar surface before the end of the Trump administration.

“We’re going to recommend that NASA re-examine the mission objectives, potentially the system architecture for Artemis IV and the subsequent missions, to establish a more balanced approach to risk, prioritize the objectives-driven planning, and maintain a consistent cadence of flight missions," said Charlie Precourt. Further added, “For every test objective, including objectives related to uncrewed demonstration missions by the lander system coming from the service providers, NASA should develop a detailed plan for testing and data collection, incorporating both ground and flight tests to ensure that all risks are thoroughly identified and mitigated. This structured approach will provide a more balanced sequence of flight tests, ultimately supporting a successful crewed lunar landing and the creation of a sustainable lunar base.”

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Beyond the Moon, the panel also raised alarms about NASA’s reliance on the commercial sector for access to low Earth orbit (LEO). While ASAP lauded progress toward the crewed Artemis II lunar flyby and praised NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman, it reportedly highlighted a looming vulnerability: Spacex's intention to eventually retire its workhorse Falcon 9 rockets and Crew Dragon spacecraft. A phase-out could complicate efforts to extend operations aboard the International Space Station (ISS) and cloud the deployment of the planned ISS deorbit vehicle. ASAP said that they will soon open a new recommendation to Isaacman about how to proceed with Artemis to ensure safety.

The prospect of losing Dragon is said to be exacerbated by ongoing delays surrounding Boeing’s Starliner. While a potential uncrewed test flight had been floated for late 2026, the safety panel noted the mission has slipped to mid-January 2027 at the earliest, with the schedule remaining under active review.

Should Dragon retire before another viable domestic system matures, NASA could be left solely dependent on Starliner for commercial crew rotation -- upending the agency's long-sought goal of redundant US providers.

The pressure on cargo resupply is similarly tight. If Dragon's cargo variant departs, Northrop Grumman’s Cygnus spacecraft stands as the sole domestic alternative, supplemented internationally by Japan’s upcoming HTV-X. While Russia continues routine rotations using Soyuz crew capsules and Progress freighters, NASA reportedly remains committed to preserving independent, continuous American access to orbit.