Five Things to Watch in South Africa’s Local Elections

Politics Desk

– November 5, 2026

5 min read

South Africans voted yesterday in a local government election that could significantly reshape the country’s political landscape. The electoral dominance of the African National Congress (ANC) has weakened considerably over the past two decades; the results will reveal how far the fragmentation of South African politics has advanced and what new governing arrangements might emerge.

Here are five things to watch as the results come in.

1. Will the DA Lose Its Majority in Cape Town?

Cape Town has long been the most important electoral stronghold for the Democratic Alliance (DA). The party won nearly 60% of the vote in the city in 2021, securing an outright governing majority.

The question is whether it can remain above the 50% threshold. Polling ahead of the election has put the party close to that mark, making it an important result to watch. In addition, the DA’s vote share declined by about eight points between 2016 and 2021. If it loses a similar proportion of the vote between 2021 and 2026, the party’s electoral majority in the Mother City could be under threat.

If the DA falls below 50% in Cape Town, it will be the first time in 15 years that the party hasn’t won a majority there. The party would still easily be able to secure a governing coalition with parties such as the Freedom Front Plus, but a loss of its majority in Cape Town would nevertheless be an actual and psychological blow for the DA.

2. Will More Than Half of Municipalities be Hung?

In the 2021 local elections, 66 of South Africa's 213 municipalities returned hung councils in which no party secured an outright majority. This represented just over a quarter of all municipalities.

Analysis conducted by The Common Sense estimates that about 100 of South Africa’s municipalities could be hung after yesterday’s vote.

This would cement the fact that South Africa is now firmly a coalition country with one-party dominance being the exception rather than the norm, as has been the case for much of South Africa’s history.

3. Will the ANC Fall Below a Third of the National Vote?

The ANC secured 45.6% of the overall national vote in the local government elections in 2021, down from 53.9% in 2016. Its national election support subsequently fell to barely 40% in 2024.

The next major threshold is one-third of the vote.

Much recent polling has the ANC at this number, and it is not inconceivable that the party’s support could tumble even further to the high 20s. This could be a significant portent for 2029: if the party did secure about 30% of the national vote in yesterday’s election, and the DA a few points below that, the DA would be well set to be the biggest party in South Africa in 2029.

4. Can the MKP Win eThekwini?

The uMkhonto weSizwe Party (MKP) contested its first local government election following its dramatic emergence in the 2024 national election, when it secured 14.6% of the national vote and became the largest party in KwaZulu-Natal.

Its most important municipal test is eThekwini, which includes Durban; one of South Africa’s largest and most economically significant cities.

In 2021, the ANC won 42.0% of the vote in eThekwini, with the DA securing approximately 26.6%. The MKP did not contest that election.

Polling ahead of yesterday’s vote placed the MKP well ahead of its competitors in the city. The question is whether the party can translate that support into a majority of council seats or, failing that, secure sufficient support from other parties to form a government.

The result will provide an important indication of how effectively the MKP has converted its national electoral breakthrough into a durable local political organisation, and how far the ANC’s historical dominance of KwaZulu-Natal has been displaced.

5. Can the DA Become the Biggest Party in all Three Gauteng Metros, and will the GNU be Replicated Locally?

Perhaps the most consequential metro results will come from Johannesburg, Tshwane, and Ekurhuleni.

In 2021, the ANC remained the largest party in all three cities, winning 33.6% in Johannesburg, 34.6% in Tshwane, and 38.2% in Ekurhuleni. The DA finished second in each.

Polling ahead of yesterday’s vote showed the DA competing closely with, or leading, the ANC in these metros. A result in which the DA became the largest party in all three would represent a significant shift in Gauteng’s political balance of power.

However, being the largest party does not guarantee control of a municipality. The more consequential question may be which parties ultimately agree to govern together.

This raises the possibility of the ANC and DA replicating their Government of National Unity (GNU) partnership at municipal level.

The two parties have governed together nationally since 2024, but their relationship at local level has been far more adversarial. If neither can assemble a workable majority with smaller parties in Gauteng’s metros, cooperation between the ANC and DA will become an important option in the negotiations.

The results of yesterday’s election will show just how far South Africa has moved away from the era of ANC dominance and towards a fragmented (and perhaps more mature) political system. But the more important test will come in the weeks ahead, as parties negotiate to form governments across the country. Those negotiations will determine whether the fragmentation of political power produces more stable and effective local administrations, or another five years of coalition instability and municipal decline.