How 11th-hour Smith injury left ‘angry’ Cummins exposed as new toss theory emerges
How 11th-hour Smith injury left ‘angry’ Cummins exposed as new toss theory emerges
The sky was blue and the Newlands pitch was brown as Pat Cummins met Temba Bavuma for the third Test toss on Tuesday.
For Kerry O’Keeffe, that meant there could only be one decision for whoever won it.
“You bat for days,” the former Australian leg-spinner said on Fox Cricket.
That Cummins then won the toss and didn’t — a staggering call that’s been widely criticised — raises questions over what sparked the shock, and whether emotions were at play.
Australia’s already unsettled batting line-up had been dealt another blow by the late withdrawal of Steve Smith with a neck complaint. And with the series on the line, the Australian captain conservatively turned to his world-class bowling attack to make the most of the Newlands conditions.
But as the Proteas raced through the opening session without losing a wicket, it was a decision that threatened to backfire spectacularly.
Mitchell Starc’s late intervention — in the form of his 20th five-wicket haul at Test level — ultimately spared Australia further embarrassment on day one. But the decision to send South Africa in also brought renewed attention to the form of the man who made it.
For all his remarkable consistency at Test level, Cummins is enduring an unprecedented wicket-taking drought, having now gone consecutive innings without a scalp for the first time in his career.
It is clearly harsh to scrutinise the output of a 33-year-old destined for Australian cricket immortality. But with the country’s fast-bowling stocks as strong as they have been in decades, and Scott Boland’s continued omission a point of contention, the margins for even the most accomplished members of this attack are remarkably fine.
To be clear, his place in Australia’s best XI is not under threat in the slightest. But, the numbers behind Cummins’ recent ‘struggles’ make for intriguing reading, if nothing else.
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As CODE Sports’ Daniel Cherny highlighted at the conclusion of day one in Cape Town, the skipper has now gone 302 deliveries and conceded 179 runs without a Test wicket — his longest drought since debuting in 2011.
Under the context that Cummins averages a breakthrough once every 46 balls in his Test career, it’s an eyebrow-raising anomaly.
A wicketless return in South Africa’s sole innings in Gqeberha before his 0/73 overnight marks very unfamiliar territory for one of Australia’s most reliable performers.
Alongside CricViz, Cherny’s analysis reveals that Cummins has been bowling faster and shorter than usual, which has potentially sacrificed the seam movement that has long made him one of Test cricket’s most formidable operators.
It is a subtle distinction, and hardly one that calls into question the methods of a bowler of Cummins’ calibre, but one that may help explain his uncharacteristic blip.
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And with Steve Smith’s late withdrawal further exposing an already vulnerable batting line-up, it is worth questioning whether Cummins’ decision to bowl first was driven as much by a desire to shield his batters as it was by the conditions underfoot.
“Australia expected Smith to play, and then he couldn’t get up, or he didn’t get up. He made the decision not to play. I reckon it was a bit undisguised in what Pat Cummins said at the toss,” veteran host Gerard Whateley told SEN on Wednesday morning from South Africa.
“I think in a pique of anger, he went, ‘Bugger it’. He (Cummins) doesn’t believe in the batting group, there’s enough evidence of that.
“He thought: ‘We’ll handle this. Leave it to the men’s department. We’ll bowl and sort it out’.”
Respected cricket commentator Bharat Sundaresan added on The Final World Podcast: “Looking at Australia’s makeshift batting line-up helps explain why Cummins instead decided to trust his bowlers at the toss.”
Not since Faf du Plessis inserted Pakistan in January 2019 had a captain who won the toss declined the chance to bat first in a Newlands Test. And these were seemingly ideal batting conditions, with blue skies overhead and a dry-looking surface offering little encouragement for the quicks.
To bowl South Africa out for 329 after being 0/158 is an impressive recovery by any measure, and one that should not be lost amid scrutiny of the decision at the toss. But it was also a recovery largely engineered by Cummins’ fellow veterans, with Starc and Nathan Lyon ensuring Australia remained in the contest despite their captain’s inability to break a wicketless run now stretching more than 50 overs long.
“My opinion doesn’t matter. It is what it is,” Starc told journalists at stumps when asked about Australia’s decision to bowl first.
“Now we had to reassess at lunch, and I think at one point we probably looked like we would be bowling a fair bit tomorrow. So to bowl (them out) today, a good close to the day, (we will) reassess overnight, and now look to bat.”
For all the questions surrounding the decision at the toss, Australia has emerged from the opening day with a foothold in a contest that threatened to slip away before lunch.
Should the tourists go on to claim a series victory, the decision to bowl first may ultimately be remembered as a calculated gamble that paid off. But, with one of the most formidable bowling attacks in Test cricket at his disposal, Cummins will be desperate to ensure his own contribution with the ball is maintained to the same standard he has done for the past decade.