South Africa’s coalition negotiations: ANC weakened, DA advances as the fight for power begins

Coalition governments are becoming the new normal in South Africa, but whether they work will depend on the maturity of the people leading them and their ability to put service delivery ahead of political interests.

That was the view of analysts as the final results from the local government elections released by the Electoral Commission of South Africa on Sunday showed that 138 out of a total 213 municipalities were hung councils.

Seven of the country’s eight metropolitan municipalities will also need coalition governments, leaving Cape Town as the only metro where the DA secured an outright majority.

The scale of the negotiations is clear from the seat allocations in the major metros. In Johannesburg, the DA has 91 of the 270 council seats, the ANC 63 and ActionSA 43. In Tshwane, the DA has 74 seats, ActionSA 48 and the ANC 44. Ekurhuleni is similarly fragmented, with the DA on 66 seats, the ANC on 59 and ActionSA on 40.

In eThekwini, the MK Party is the largest party with 86 of the 223 seats, followed by the DA with 57, the ANC with 37 and the IFP with 15. None of these parties has enough seats to govern alone, giving smaller parties a potentially decisive role in negotiations.

Expansion of coalition politics since 2021

The final results show a significant expansion of coalition politics since the 2021 local government elections, when 70 hung councils were recorded.

Professor Siphamandla Zondi, professor of politics and international relations at the University of Johannesburg, said coalitions could work if political parties and councillors focused on the work of municipalities, which was to build prosperous communities.

“The majority of the 70 hung municipalities in the 2021–2026 period have been stable, without any instability and drama. Take Langeberg Municipality, where the DA and FF+ have been in coalition for two terms. It has been an example of stability, with the delivery of public goods too,” Zondi said.

“Metsimaholo Local Municipality’s coalition of the ANC, AIC and EFF is another that found a formula for stability and progress. The coalition government in Rustenburg, made up of the ANC, AIC, ARONA and BCM, is also considered exemplary, despite ongoing service-delivery challenges.”

However, Zondi warned that volatile coalitions posed risks to municipalities.

“Unstable coalitions risk undermining the very mandate of local government to build prosperous localities. They can lead to a decline in service provision, the misuse of funds and a rise in corruption. They can damage the relationship between professional administrators and politicians.”

Changing political landscape

Political analyst Dr Bhasela Yalezo from the University of KwaZulu-Natal said the country’s political landscape had changed fundamentally, with the coalition phenomenon taking root after the ANC lost control of several metros in 2016 and becoming more firmly established following the 2024 national elections.

Yalezo said voters, particularly in urban areas, were less attached to political parties and more concerned about outcomes.

“People in big metros or big cities are not loyal to political parties. They want service delivery.”

He said the ANC had lost the patience and trust of voters and that the changing political arena meant smaller parties were likely to have greater influence in negotiations, with some now in a position to determine who governs.

“The process now will be shared among equals,” Yalezo said.

He argued that the problem should not be seen as coalition government itself, but rather as the way political parties had used or abused power when they had an outright majority.

Yalezo said South Africa needed clearer guidelines and a stronger framework to help parties manage coalition arrangements and disagreements. He said the experience of the Government of National Unity could make it easier for the ANC and DA to work together in some municipalities, while other possible combinations could prove more difficult.

Municipalities with poor services

The pressure on incoming administrations will be particularly acute in municipalities where voters have punished parties over poor services. In Emfuleni, for example, the DA won 37 of the 90 council seats, compared with 22 for the ANC. The DA remains short of the 46 seats needed for a majority, so it will need support from other parties to govern.

The DA’s mayoral candidate, Kingsol Chabalala, has pledged to prioritise water and sewage infrastructure and review the municipality’s finances. The party has also promised a 100-day assessment of service failures, followed by a recovery plan. ANC Sedibeng regional secretary Jason Mkhwane acknowledged that dissatisfaction with service delivery had contributed to the party’s declining support.

The Mapungubwe Institute for Strategic Reflection’s (Mistra) latest Coalitions Barometer examined municipalities that experienced coalition or minority government at some point between the 2021 local government elections and February 2026. These municipalities went through 175 administrations. Of the 70 administrations formed after the 2021 elections, 23 were still in their original form at the end of the study period.

The findings challenge the assumption that coalition governments are inevitably doomed to collapse. But this does not mean that every coalition worked or that political stability automatically translated into better services.

Not doomed to collapse

Dr Laurence Caromba of Mistra, the lead researcher, said the rate at which administrations were toppled through motions of no confidence had slowed.

This suggested that parties were learning to work together, or that the most unstable coalitions had already collapsed, leaving those better able to survive.

One of the barometer’s key findings was that coalitions excluding the largest party in a council collapsed at about four times the rate of those in which it had been included.

Caromba stressed that the largest party did not have an automatic right to govern. Smaller parties could form a legitimate government if they commanded a majority. But excluding the largest party could make a coalition harder to sustain.

The barometer showed that, in 16 cases, the ANC was the largest party in a coalition but allowed a smaller partner to take the mayoralty.

The Patriotic Alliance secured nine mayoralties despite never being the largest party in those coalitions.

Professor Busani Ngcaweni, director of the Centre for Public Policy and African Studies at the University of Johannesburg, said coalitions could work, but their success would depend heavily on the people chosen to lead them.

“The most important thing for a coalition is the maturity of the people you bring to lead the coalition. If you have childish people, regardless of what the rules and the laws say, it will collapse,” Ngcaweni said.

He said coalition partners would have to accept their differences and agree on a common development programme that allowed them to work towards shared objectives.

One of the biggest challenges, he said, would be managing competing interests, particularly those involving patronage and money.

Ngcaweni pointed out that competing interests were not unique to coalition governments. They existed even when one party governed alone.

He warned that political competition could become a struggle to retain power rather than an effort to deliver for residents.

He said the public had an important role to play in holding coalition partners accountable. Agreements should be made public so residents could see what parties had committed themselves to and judge whether they were delivering.

“All coalition agreements must remain public, so that we know what they agreed on,” Ngcaweni said.