Uncertainty A Risk As South Africa’s Political Parties Begin Coalition Talks

Coalitions have become a prevalent theme in South African politics ever since the African National Congress (ANC) lost its majority in the national and provincial elections of 2024. The outcome, which birthed the Government of National Unity (GNU), forced an adjustment for a party that, on a municipal level, commanded roughly 46% of the votes in 2021.

That figure now stands at 30.76%, as the Democratic Alliance (DA) captured 24.64%, still the dominant party in Cape Town, while overtaking the ANC in Gauteng. Crucially, it’s in Johannesburg, the country’s economic hub (and one of 138 councils) in which the future rests on the predicament of a hung result.

Another big loss for the ANC was Durban’s eThekwini metro, where the MK Party emerged as the largest party, but fell short of an outright majority.

Speaking to reporters, ANC secretary-general, Fikile Mbalula admitted it to have been a “catastrophic outcome,” while President Cyril Ramaphosa accepted the results of the Electoral Commission of South Africa (IEC), admitting it to be a decline that is concerning.

In the instance of no outright winner, which was the case for well over half of the 213 councils, South Africa’s political parties must align on policy, budgets, and administrations.

With state power unprecedentedly dispersed, it begs the question as to whether South Africa faces a turbulent future, because if the GNU has taught anyone anything, it’s that inter-governmental standoffs are inevitable.

Amplifying this feeling of uncertainty is the possible fractures over who the next mayor of Johannesburg could be. At Sunday’s IEC event, ActionSA leader, Herman Mashaba revealed that it is willing to work alongside the DA, as long as it doesn’t involve its mayoral candidate for the City of Johannesburg, Helen Zille.

Explaining the intricacies of coalitions, Mlondi Mveli Mdluli, Member of South Africa’s Parliamentary Portfolio Committee on Small Business Development, tells FORBES AFRICA that, “Municipalities operate within national fiscal rules, so what they control is how well they spend, collect, maintain and approve.

“Metros are where water, electricity, billing and permitting either function or fail, so whoever governs them, and whichever mayors emerge from the council negotiations, will ultimately be judged on delivery.”

With so much yet to be finalized, the real test within South Africa’s hung metros comes in the weeks after the count.

Secure stable governing arrangements quickly, and Mdluli expects that will reassure investors: “Cities are the engine room of the economy, so even modest improvements in service delivery compound into jobs and investment.”

Failure to find harmony, however, risks paralyzing municipalities’ ability to draft policies and allocate public capital.

“Worse still would be local arrangements that pull against the national policy framework and unsettle confidence in where policy is heading. We have seen the local version of that before, and the cost shows up in delayed projects and investors choosing to wait,” Mdluli adds.