Careers on the line as worrying stat explains baffling Cummins call

Diamonds are formed under less pressure and heat than the Australian batters will be under on day two of the third Test against the Proteas.

On Tuesday night, Pat Cummins made arguably the most baffling toss decision since Nasser Hussain in the 2002 Ashes opener at the Gabba.

And it looked to have been destined for a similar fate until Mitchell Starc more than saved the team’s bacon with that stunning spell.

On Wednesday night, focus will be solely on a batting unit that hasn’t collectively scored 400 in seven innings - a stat that goes some way to explaining why Cummins wasn’t prepared to back his side to set up the game with the willow, even on a pitch that looked a batting paradise.

In that same time, the two innings in the first Test in Durban – where the Aussies were bowled out for 390 in the first innings and then declared at 6-314 in the second – are the only times they even made 300.

It’s a shocking stat. Even in today’s game, first innings totals of 400 go a long way to winning the Test.

In the 395 Test matches played since January 2017, a team that has scored 400 in their first innings has gone on to lose the Test only nine times – just 2.3 per cent.

Scoring 400 in the first innings was once considered a par score on most pitches for the Aussie team. Now, it’s the exception. Australia simply must bat out at least the day, and probably a chunk of day three as well, to give us the best chance of winning the Test.

On Tuesday night, Cummins shocked the cricket world when he elected to bowl on what looked like a flat deck in Cape Town.

As the old saying from WG Grace goes: “When you win the toss, bat. If you are in doubt, think about it, then bat. If you have very big doubts, consult a colleague, then bat.”

There is a theory Cummins did so to try and protect his under-pressure batters and take some of the heat off by bowling the Proteas out cheaply.

Unless the pitch is a raging green top, protecting the batters from batting is an odd concept.

But then again, with Steve Smith ruled out with a neck injury, Cummins’ batting stocks are as deep as the dog’s water bowl. Confidence is also likely at an all-time low for several key figures.

Marnus Labuschagne and Travis Head are all of a sudden the only two senior batters, and the No.3 is quite literally playing for his Test career.

He hasn’t scored a Test century in three years. Quite simply, if he does not end the drought in this match – or at the very least end up stranded with a healthy not-out score – his Test career is likely over.

Head tonned up last time out at Gqeberha, but openers by default are generally pushing the proverbial uphill to post big scores regularly.

He’ll also have Matthew Renshaw down the other end, promoted up the order after Nic Maddinson’s return to the Test arena ended after two matches.

If Renshaw can put together a couple of solid innings, he’ll go a long way to cementing himself at the top of the Australian order at least for this summer, and probably even for the Ashes next year.

There are question marks over Josh Inglis at five, as well. He famously scored a century on debut against Sri Lanka at Galle, but has only once since passed 30. He has floated up and down the middle order in his seven Test innings, but at least No.5 is where he batted in that Galle debut.

Then there’s Alex Carey at No.6. He hasn’t scored a half-century since December, but looked solid on his way to 37 not out in Gqeberha. There is also an argument six is too high for the Australian wicket-keeper, who has tended to do his best work batting with the tail.

At No.7, Cooper Connolly is playing just his second Test match. On debut in Galle last January, he was dismissed for four and did not bat in the second dig. Whether he’s up to the challenge of facing a quality bowling attack like that of the Proteas remains a mystery.

Regardless, purely from a sporting perspective, Wednesday night represents one of the most important for this playing group in recent memory.

Add to that the pressures of returning to Cape Town for the first time since sandpapergate, and the pressure to bounce back from a demoralising innings defeat in Gqeberha.

In a nutshell, all 11 of the Aussies need to bat like their whole careers depend on it. Because, for at least some of them, it probably does.