World Test Championship run home: Proteas firm for final | cricket.com.au
Find out what is required for each team to qualify for the WTC final
World Test Championship run home: Proteas firm for final
South Africa's come-from-behind victory over Australia has drastically shaken up the World Test Championship standings as the race for the final heats up.
The reigning champions SA are now in the box seat to feature in next June's decider with an opportunity to become the first team to defend their crown and win back-to-back maces.
Three of the past four WTC finalists have qualified with a points percentage of 66.67 or higher, with India's 58.8 to reach the 2023 decider the lowest of the tournament's three editions to date.
1. New Zealand (52 points, 72.22%)
Series to come
November-December: Two Tests v India (home)
December-January: Four Tests v Australia (away)
February: Two Tests v Sri Lanka (home)
March: Two Tests v Pakistan (away)
New Zealand have moved into top spot on the WTC standings thanks most recently to South Africa knocking off Australia in their three-Test series. The first of the Kiwis' 10 remaining Tests is against India from November 19 but their most consequential series will be the four Tests against Australia in December and January.
The Blackcaps will likely need to win at least six of their remaining matches, which would give them a points percentage score of 64.6. Losing 4-0 to Australia in a worst-case scenario wouldn't rule them out of contention, but it would mean they'd need the Aussies to win no more than one Test in their five-match series against India. Eight wins would guarantee their spot.
NZ haven't qualified for the final since they claimed the inaugural WTC crown by defeating India in the 2021 decider.
2. South Africa (60 points, 71.43%)
Series to come
November: Two Tests v Bangladesh (home)
December-January: Three Tests v England (home)
February-March: Two Tests v Sri Lanka (away)
With seven Tests remaining, and five of those at home, South Africa stand a strong chance to finish in the top two once again. The reigning WTC champions head straight into their two-Test series against Bangladesh which begins on November 15.
Four wins out of the seven could be enough to qualify (would leave them on 64.28 per cent) while five wins (73.81 per cent) would guarantee it.
3. Australia (108 points, 69.23%)
Series to come
December-January: Four Tests v New Zealand (home)
January-March: Five Tests v India (away)
The 2-1 series loss in South Africa has dented Australia's hopes of an easy path to the WTC final in June and coach Andrew McDonald admitted his side was now "a little bit up against it" to qualify.
New Zealand at home (four Tests) won't be straightforward but the biggest challenge lays in their five-Test tour of India to round out the cycle. Australia have only won two of their past 18 Tests in India and may be required to win several matches in the series.
To finish with a points percentage above 65, the Aussies would need to reach a total of 172 points in this cycle, which requires at least another five wins and a draw from their remaining nine Tests. Even a 4-0 sweep over the Blackcaps wouldn't guarantee Australia's place; they would still require a least one positive result in India and hope other results go their way.
4. India (68 points, 51.52%)
Series to come
November-December: Two Tests v New Zealand (away)
January-March: Five Tests v Australia (home)
India have seven Tests to play and they will need to win at least five of those to realistically surge back into contention.
The positive is they have five Tests at home and both of their remaining series are against teams above them, meaning they can reduce the gap to New Zealand and Australia by beating them. They will likely need to rely on other results going their way too.
Six wins guarantees India a place. The Indians will also be hoping for some drawn Tests in the Australia-New Zealand Test series which would deny both of their rivals crucial points.
5. Bangladesh (40 points, 47.62%)
Series to come
October-November: Two Tests v West Indies (home) - ongoing
November: Two Tests v South Africa (away)
February: Two Tests v England (home)
Bangladesh's eight-wicket loss to West Indies in the first Test of their two-match series was a blow to their hopes after previously being undefeated at home in the current WTC cycle.
Winning all of their remaining matches will guarantee a spot for Najmul Shanto's side (and take them to 69.44 per cent) and even a 1-1 draw with South Africa would be acceptable if other results go their way.
Bangladesh's best finish in the WTC is seventh which they achieved in the most recent cycle (2023-25) and current form suggests they should improve on that again this time around.
6. England (74 points, 38.54%)
Series to come
December-January: Three Tests v South Africa (away)
February: Two Tests v Bangladesh (away)
A new era for England will begin in December when head coach Stephen Fleming takes charge of the Test team against reigning champions South Africa away from home.
And the focus for the English will be more dialled in on their Ashes plans rather than their WTC final prospects. They have been penalised 14 points due to slow over-rates in this WTC cycle, and despite a 3-0 sweep of bottom-placed Pakistan are still languishing in the bottom half of the table.
If England win all five of their remaining matches they will finish on 53.17 per cent, which is extremely unlikely to see them qualify for the final, and only seems possible if every other match that doesn't include England is drawn. A single loss against South Africa will rule them out completely.
7. Sri Lanka (24 points, 33.33%)
Series to come
November: Two Tests v Pakistan (away)
February: Two Tests v New Zealand (away)
February-March: Two Tests v South Africa (home)
Regardless of what happens from here, Sri Lanka will be reliant on other results to go their way because they are so far back in the race.
Back-to-back series losses to West Indies and India have hurt their cycle, but they will rocket back into contention if they can defeat Pakistan 2-0. Five wins from six will see SL finish on 58.33 per cent, though even that is unlikely to be enough. Six from six (and a percentage of 66.67) gives them the best hope but that would need two wins in New Zealand and would require South Africa and Australia to both lose several Tests.
8. West Indies (42 points, 26.92%)
Series to come
October-November: Two Tests v Bangladesh (away) - ongoing
West Indies lost seven of eight Tests to begin the current cycle and with just one match remaining against Bangladesh, the highest points percentage they can finish with is 32.14. An eight-wicket win in Mirpur last week was an unexpected and impressive result.
9. Pakistan (5 points, 4.63%)
Series to come
November: Two Tests v Sri Lanka (home)
March: Two Tests v New Zealand (home)
It's been another extremely challenging WTC cycle for Pakistan who most recently were beaten soundly 3-0 by England.
Their campaign began by beating defending champions South Africa in Lahore but they then lost 2-0 to Bangladesh and drew 1-1 with West Indies. Babar Azam's side were docked 11 points after the third Test against England at Edgbaston for maintaining a slow over-rate, keeping them anchored at the bottom of the standings.
Clean sweeps over both Sri Lanka and New Zealand at home in their remaining series would only improve their percentage to 33.97.